I'm going back 20 years since I really don't want to bother going back further. There are 5 nominees in 19 of the 20 year and 10 nominees this year. So the odds of the highest grossing film winning are (19*.2+1*.1)/20 = 19.5% So we need 20*.195 = 3.9 (we'll just round to 4) Best Picture Winners to be the highest grossing nominee in those 20 years. Let's see how we do:
| Year | Winner | Highest Grossing |
| 1990 | Dances with Wolves | Ghost |
| 1991 | The Silence of the Lambs | Beauty and the Beast |
| 1992 | Unforgiven | A Few Good Men |
| 1993 | Schindler's List | The Fugitive |
| 1994* | Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
| 1995 | Braveheart | Appolo 13 |
| 1996 | The English Patient | Jerry Maguire |
| 1997* | Titanic | Titanic |
| 1998 | Shakespeare in Love | Saving Private Ryan |
| 1999 | American Beauty | The Sixth Sense |
| 2000* | Gladiator | Gladiator |
| 2001 | A Beautiful Mind | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring |
| 2002 | Chicago | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers |
| 2003* | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| 2004* | Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby |
| 2005 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain |
| 2006* | The Departed | The Departed |
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | Juno |
| 2008* | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2009 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar |
So we should've gotten 4 and ended up with 7. If anything, being the highest grossing nominee helps more than hurts your chances. Breaking down by decade doesn't change that. Even if you don't count 2003 and 2006 where they should've just folded up the tents and admitted that there just really wasn't a film good enough to be Best Picture, you still get more than enough examples to make the case that the highest grossing nominee has a distinct edge in winning. The Avatar and Saving Private Ryan losses are probably the biggest "upsets" I recall, but there's a clear trend showing that their losses have nothing to do with haughty Oscar voters looking down on the common folk. The voters just thought there were better movies out there.
EDIT: And for the record, those results surprised me. I thought I'd find a clear trend the other way.
5 comments:
But the original version of Avatar did win, back in 1990.
If you really want to split hairs, the original version of Avatar won back in 1962. Peter O'Toole was a white messiah before Kevin Costner was even old enough to drive.
True.
In 2008, Benjamin Button made more than $100 million before getting a best picture nomination, while Slumdog Millionaire had less than $45 (despite being released earlier). At the time the Academy Awards rolled around that year, Button had shy of $125 million whereas Slumdog had less than $100. Slumdog made a lot of money AFTER winning Best Picture.
The same happened in 2004. Million Dollar Baby was LAST before nominations came out with just shy of $8.5 million total, and was millions behind both The Aviator and Ray at the time it was declared Best Picture (and was just barely ahead of Sideways). Also, Million Dollar Baby's total gross was $100.5, whereas The Aviator ended up with $102.6, making it that year's victor.
So, really, it's a total of 6, not 7, that ENDED UP with the most money, and only 5 that had the most money prior to nominations / winning best picture.
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However, for the 12 years prior...
1989 Driving Miss Daisy ended up with the most but, as of Oscar night, had less than Dead Poets Society;
1988 Rain Man walked away number 1.
1987, Winner The Last Emperor was fourth behind Fatal Attraction (seriously?), Moonstruck, and Broadcast News.
1986, Platoon walked away number 1.
1985, Out of Africa ended up with less money than the Color Purple and won Best Picture with less money than Witness.
1984, Amadeus was ahead a little when it won, then ahead some more.
1983, Terms of Endearment walked away with number 1.
1982, Ghandi was fifth until the nominations then it eeked up to...fourth. Behind ET, Tootsie, and the Verdict.
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For movies before 1982, box office mojo does not break them down by gross pre-nomination, pre-award, and post-award. The following is just the ends.
1981, Chariots of Fire ended up third behind Raiders of the Lost Ark and On Golden Pond.
1980, Ordinary People was second to Coal Miner's Daughter.
1979, Kramer v. Kramer was number 1.
1978, The Deer Hunter was second to Heaven Can Wait(!).
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So, that's 12/32 if you count it from the end total. 9 or 10/32 if you count it from the night of the awards. Either way, that's like a third.
So, what they should have said is, Academy voters don't like to vote for the most popular movie AS OFTEN as they used to.
It's still far more than the 20% needed to show that the highest grossing film at least gets a fair shake. You are right about the winner getting a boost in sales, but there are other factors at play like release schedule. Sometimes an Oscar nominee hasn't finished its first wide-spread theatrical run by the time of the awards show. (If I remember right, Slumdog Millionaire and Crash were examples of nominees still in the midst of their first wide release at the time the Oscars aired.)
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