Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Unbelievable Political Calculus


When it comes to extending the Bush subsidization of the uberwealthy, the Democrats were toast. The D position since 2006 was to try and salvage the middle class cuts, while detatching them from the uberwealthy, deficit building cuts that haven't done one thing to create jobs (as promised by Bush and the GOP).

Becasue Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don't own calendars or listen to nationwide polling, getting a deal done on this before the election was out of the question. Then the GOP won in November, and would be routing the Dems from the House of Representatives. All the momentum was in favor of the GOP, the Dems had one choice: extend the tax percentages or raise taxes on every American. Again, toast.

Basically, the Dems now had to give the GOP what they wanted, or become politically responsible for increasing everyone's taxes. While they're often accused of raising taxes even when they don't, this time would be the real deal. (Of course, not a single elected Democratic official ever seems to realize that they'll be getting blamed for taxes whether they've raised them or not.)

Some Democrats want to fight the GOP over this no-job-creatin', deficit exploding, subsidization of the uberwealthy. They want this even now, after their inability to win an argument against fantasy-land Republicans. But President Obama steps in, chides these Democrats of his own party, and comes up with an unbelievable compromise with the GOP. They get to keep this failed tax structure, and the Democrats get a few things like unemployment extended. That's more than these Democrats reasonably had any right to expect.

Even though, by extending this tax structure, they'll still be responsible for raising taxes. Because they always are.

No one will credit Obama for negotiating this solution. To the left, this is a cave to the right. To the right, he is the same socialist, Islamic, Kenyan anti-colonialist he was before, and he's only doing this becasue he fears Boehners made of orange. Most GOTP folks know this, and were celebrating their political victory. They got the tax structure they wanted, before they even got control of Congress, and they'll take all the credit for stopping the march of communist homosexuality that all Kenyan anti-colonialists really want (according to lunatics on talk radio). The Democrats and anyone to the left of reasonable just has to sit here and take it.

But that's not how it really is going to happen.

Instead, the ultra-right-wing, despite getting everything it wants out of this legislation, ISN'T GOING TO VOTE FOR IT.

This is not some political victory that Obama orchestrated, as some might think. Without a Democratic Party effectively speaking to the people of this nation and explaining what is going on, the GOTP is free to demonize Obama without the contraints of reality, make Democrats accept and vote for demonstrably failed Republican tax structures and economic policies, AND NOT VOTE FOR THEIR OWN LEGISLATIVE POLICIES.

Meaning the "Bush Tax Cuts" are now "Obama's Failed Subsidization of the Uber Wealthy."

And if the Dems somehow come to their senses, and get enough votes against this compromise, they will be responsible for raising taxes on every American.

I'm getting awful tired of being put in lose-lose situations becasue Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don't own calendars, and President Obama continues trying to negotiate with individuals who want nothing more than to see him destroyed.



Dante said...

Pelosi and Reid were still in serious denial leading up to the election. But to be fair this bill isn't everything the GOP wants. It's a compromise. And yeah, it's a compromise with the goalposts shoved wide right, but the American voters shoved them there. Right now the GOP gains nothing from compromise. It's still the Democrats' House, Senate, and Presidency. If the Bush tax cuts expire on their watch, Obama has broken his biggest campaign promise.

If they do compromise, Obama steals their thunder and is well on his way to becoming another Bill Clinton. And on top of that, unemployment benefits would be extended again. These extension go all the way back to when Bush was in office. (You remember Bush? He was President back when everybody had jobs.) I'm sure Republicans don't want those "Vote Democrat or TEH EVIL REPUBS will cut your unemployment," ads running against them in 2012. But then again, I don't think anyone who has been on unemployment for 4 years is going to vote Republican anyway.

There's plenty of time for compromise the next go around. Right now it's completely the Democrats' show. There's no point in giving them a win under those circumstances. Let them fall on their faces since they're actively trying to do so.

Cousin Pat from Georgia said...

Right now the GOP gains nothing from compromise.

You are absolutely right. This compromise includes more than the Democrats have any rational reason to expect. The only political calculus that I can see having an affect on the GOP is that they read the polls much better than Pelosi or Reid. They know their unfavorables are still in the pit, along with the Democrats. If Boehner has half a brain, he wants to get something done just in case the Dems wake up (they won't) and tag the GOP on raising taxes.

If they do compromise, Obama steals their thunder

There are some who will think this is the case. I think they are very wrong. The GOTP can politic this into a huge win: "we got elected, and immediately saved your taxes from being raised by the Democrats."

You remember Bush? He was President back when everybody had jobs.

And two wars without a strategy to win, a mangled disaster response capability, a bunch of phantom economic gains and a stagnant worldwide economy that collapsed - leading to our current joblessness. What wasn't to like about the lost Bush decade?