Thursday, March 03, 2011

2012

I'll say it now, the Democrats will not retake the House of Representatives in 2012. As a matter of fact, I'm of the opinion that the Democrats won't even have a chance to retake the House of Representatives again until after 2020.

And they'll only do that if they can expand their influence in state legislatures in time for the next census figures. Remember, with the GOP sweep of so many state houses during the redistricting process, they get to politically consolidate congressional power through demographic manipulation. Not that the Democrats were any angels when they controlled this process, but the GOP isn't even going to have to play ball with Democrats in the South this time around. That'll free up resources to fight this out in other states in other regions.

Maybe that will teach the national Democrats not to ignore the state parties. Especially in the South.

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2 comments:

patsbrother said...

Can we hold off on the grand prognostications? (I'm referring to the 2020 one.) A few years ago, there was that infamous quote about a "permanent" Republican majority and Democratic lamentations and woe. And then there was that whole Replicans-will-be-a-permanent-minority thing (James Carville actually published a book called "40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation"). All such projections crashed and burned in spectacular Hindenberg-style fashion.

If, however, you say these things to goad fate into making your forecasts wrong, kudos for attempting reverse psychology on the Almighty.

(No, seriously. If that's how your brain works, too, that's badass.)

Cousin Pat from Georgia said...

That's the thing, those individuals were all reading polls and proclaiming their opinions based on "what America wants."

Which is a suspect way to make prognostications. The "American people" voted for Health Care Reform before they voted against it, after all.

I am basing my prognostication on several very pertinent structural and procedural facts:

1. District boundaries matter in election outcomes.
2. The GOP won large majority control in many State Legislatures.
3. State Legislatures draw US Congressional districts.

The GOP is going to have a structural electoral advantage in the United States House of Representatives until 2020; that will likely mean GOP control of that House of Congress for the whole of that time, even if 60% of all voters cast their votes for Democratic candidates.