Wednesday, September 14, 2011

2023

The Democratic Party will not regain political control of the US House Representatives until 2023 at the earliest. No recent political developments have changed this prediction.

As a matter of fact, I'd think they strengthen it.

Oh, and let's not forget that the GOP are still talking about the Ground Zero Mosque as part of their election strategy.

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3 comments:

patsbrother said...

A few years ago, people were talking about a permanent Republican House majority.

A few less years ago, people were talking about a Democratic Congress which would ast for a generation.

While you're (currently) less dramatic than the people listed above were, I think prognostications such as are found in your post are almost completely worthless.

patsbrother said...

Ahem. "Last" for a generation.

Cousin Pat from Georgia said...

people were talking about a Democratic Congress which would ass for a generation.

FTFY

Again, when those media types made their hyperbole (and I don't think anyone believed the Democrats would control their own bowels for a generation), they were not looking at the gerrymandering/redistricting process. In 2010, they have completely ignored how this will happen.

How do I know? The Democratic Party is fielding exactly zero, yes, zero, statewide candidates for the 2012 election. The Georgia House of Reps has been drawn something like 160-40. The GOP will own every single non-minority US House seat in the American Sun Belt, the fastest growing region of the nation, that gained the most House seats in the last census.

This will be the makeup until 2023 at the earliest. I would, in fact, put the odds at 1:1 that the Democratic Party falls apart nationally, and the next time they have a hand in electing a Speaker of the House, it will be as part of a coalition government with a third party.